0.92? 0.95? Back towards 1.00?
Everyone would like to know where EUR/CHF will be at the end of the year.
Nobody knows.
But that doesn’t mean the market moves randomly.
Behind every move in the Swiss franc are very real forces: central bank decisions, inflation, interest rate differentials, capital flows and geopolitical tensions.
And in the second half of 2026, several of these forces could come into play at the same time.
For cross-border workers, businesses and individuals who need to convert CHF into EUR, the real question may not be about predicting the next exchange rate down to the last decimal.
The real question is:
Which events could push EUR/CHF in one direction or the other?
Here are the 5 key factors to watch through the end of 2026.
1. SNB: How Strong Will It Allow the Swiss Franc to Become?
The franc gets too strong. What does the SNB do?
This is one of the key questions for the rest of the year.
The Swiss National Bank currently maintains its policy rate at 0%.
More importantly, it has reiterated its increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if a rapid and excessive appreciation of the franc threatens price stability.
The message to the markets is therefore important:
The SNB is watching the franc very closely.
A renewed sharp appreciation of the CHF could quickly put Swiss monetary policy back in the spotlight.
2. ECB: Could the Euro Regain the Advantage?
While Switzerland remains at 0%, Europe could move in a different direction.
This could become one of the most important factors for EUR/CHF.
Markets are closely monitoring the European Central Bank’s upcoming decisions and changing expectations around interest rates.
If European interest rates remain significantly higher than Swiss rates or rise further the euro could benefit from additional support.
But there is an important point to remember:
The market does not necessarily wait for the official decision.
Investors often adjust their positions several weeks in advance.
Sometimes, a single statement from the ECB can have almost as much impact as the interest rate decision itself.
3. Inflation: The Number That Could Change Central Banks’ Plans
A few tenths of a percentage point can be enough to change the scenario.
Eurozone inflation was estimated at 2.9% in July 2026, compared with 2.8% in June.
Why does this matter for EUR/CHF?
Because persistent inflation could push the ECB towards a more restrictive monetary policy.
Conversely, a faster-than-expected decline could change expectations for future interest rates.
In Switzerland, inflationary pressures are different, and the SNB currently maintains its policy rate at 0%.
Upcoming inflation figures could therefore change the gap between monetary policy in Switzerland and the euro area.
And as a result:
shift the balance between the euro and the Swiss franc.
4. Geopolitics: The Factor No Calendar Can Predict
A central bank decision is scheduled. A geopolitical crisis isn’t.
And that is precisely what makes the Swiss franc so distinctive.
The CHF has historically been considered a safe-haven currency.
When global uncertainty rises sharply, some investors look for ways to protect their capital.
The Swiss franc can then benefit from additional demand.
A renewed escalation in international tensions could therefore strengthen the CHF, even if other economic factors had previously appeared to favour the euro.
Markets can shift from an economic scenario to crisis mode within hours.
5. The Swiss Franc Paradox: Safe Haven, Low-Yielding Currency
The CHF can be highly sought after during a crisis and lose appeal when investors are looking for higher returns.
That is the current paradox.
With the Swiss policy rate at 0%, the franc can become attractive as a funding currency for certain carry trade strategies.
The principle is relatively simple: investors borrow or finance themselves in a low-interest-rate currency and invest in a currency or asset offering a higher return.
If the interest rate gap between Switzerland and the euro area remains significant and financial markets stay relatively calm, this could put pressure on the franc.
But what happens if a crisis breaks out?
The CHF’s safe-haven status could quickly take over again.
Two opposing forces. One currency.
So: 0.92, 0.95 or 1.00?
That is naturally the question that attracts the most attention.
But giving an exact EUR/CHF level for December today would create an illusion of certainty.
It is more useful to think in terms of scenarios.
If international tensions ease, European interest rates remain higher and the SNB maintains an accommodative monetary policy, the environment could become more favourable for EUR/CHF to move higher.
If, on the other hand, global uncertainty increases and investors once again seek safety in the CHF, the Swiss franc could regain strength.
And, of course, an intermediate scenario remains entirely possible.
Should You Exchange Your CHF Now or Wait?
This is the question no forecast can answer with certainty.
Waiting implicitly means believing that the future exchange rate will be more favourable.
Exchanging now means accepting the conditions available today.
However, there is one essential difference:
You cannot control the next move in EUR/CHF.
But you can control the rate you accept when you decide to exchange your money.
MyBestFX: We Don’t Predict Tomorrow
We prefer to show you what you can get today.
With MyBestFX, you know your exchange rate and the amount you will receive before confirming your conversion.
SNB, ECB, inflation, geopolitics…
The market will keep moving.
Your rate, however, should be clear before you click “Confirm.”
Key Takeaways
Five factors could have a particularly significant influence on EUR/CHF through the end of 2026:
SNB. ECB. Inflation. Geopolitics. Interest rate differentials.
Some could strengthen the euro.
Others could strengthen the Swiss franc.
And an unexpected event could completely reshape the outlook.
That is why the best forecast may also be the simplest:
Nobody knows the next exchange rate.
But when you decide to exchange your money, you should always know yours.